Wafer inventory is approximately 18 GW, with cell inventory continuing to increase WoW [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM News on June 10:

Wafer

Prices: The price of N-type 18X wafers in the market is 0.9-0.93 yuan/piece; the price of 210R wafers is 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece. Wafer prices continue to decline, with some top-tier enterprises temporarily standing firm on quotes.

Production: The estimated domestic wafer production in June is approximately 55.9 GW. Currently, the market is seeing an increase in the 210R size against the trend, while the sales of 183 wafers are significantly hindered.

Inventory: Wafer inventory has recently fluctuated slightly. Comparing the operating rates of cells and wafers, the overall supply and demand are in a tight balance, with wafer inventory at around 18 GW.

Solar Cell

Prices: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with efficiency of 23.2% and above) is 0.265-0.27 yuan/W. Due to limited total demand, there are very few existing players, mainly catering to overseas demand; the PERC210 cell market has seen no transactions for a long time. The mainstream quotation for Topcon183 solar cells (with efficiency of 25% and above) is around 0.24-0.25 yuan/W; the mainstream transaction price for Topcon210RN is 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.265-0.27 yuan/W; the price of Topcon210N solar cells is around 0.26-0.265 yuan/W. The stratification of end-use demand has led to differentiation in size premiums: 183 and 210N have fallen to the bottom of their previous price ranges, while 210RN orders have recently surged in popularity. Producers are generally optimistic about the demand space in June, expecting price recovery. It is anticipated that the trend differences across sizes will continue to stabilize. The mainstream quotation for HJT30% silver-coated copper (with efficiency of 25% and above) is 0.34-0.35 yuan/W, remaining stable. Overall, direct sales of HJT are limited, with integrated manufacturers being self-sufficient.

Production: The preliminary estimated global production schedule for June is 57-58 GW, down 4-5% MoM. The supply of cells continues to tighten due to weak demand. If the supply-demand imbalance widens, producers will need to continue cutting production.

Inventory: Module producers have adjusted their procurement needs, leading to a decrease in orders. Cell inventory continues to increase WoW. Some enterprises have swiftly switched production lines and adjusted their product mix to expedite shipments.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA: The transaction price of PV-grade EVA is 10,000-10,400 yuan/mt. The domestic settlement price of PV-grade POE is approximately 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt.

PV Film: Currently, the mainstream price of 420 gsm transparent EVA film is 5.17-5.25 yuan/m², the price of 420 gsm white EVA film is 5.67-5.75 yuan/m², the price of 380 gsm EPE film is 5.28-5.32 yuan/m², and the price of 380 gsm POE film is 6.69-6.84 yuan/m².

Production: The production schedule for PV-grade EVA in June decreased by 2.70% MoM, and the production schedule for PV film decreased by 3.1% MoM.

Inventory: The overall transaction volume of EVA was average, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The inventory levels at petrochemical plants remained low.